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Weather forecast for sports and outdoor activities: improving our understanding of forecast processes, communication and decision-making
Stage de 6 mois à partir de février/mars 2024
This internship aims to investigate two aspects related to how weather forecasters deal with high-stakes, spatially localized, large-event venue sports events:
• Space-time mapping the forecast processes (e.g., tools, organization and planning);
• Investigating mental shortcuts, including cognitive biases, on forecast communication and decision-support processes.
Research questions to be investigated are, for instance:
– What key weather and other “non-weather” factors influence the forecasting and its communication processes in weather forecasting for sports activities (e.g., time pressures, stress management, asymmetric penalties, recent successes/problems, cognitive and affective heuristics/biases)?
– How predictability limitations and corresponding uncertainty play a role in these processes?
The study will focus on interviews with weather forecasters who have experienced and faced challenges in analysing forecasts and communicating them in a decision process involving sports events (either in France – Météo-France weather forecasters – or abroad, mainly in National Meteorological Services in Europe). Interviews will mainly be online, with face-to-face interviews whenever possible.
Niveau de formation et prérequis : 2nd year of Master degree in Social sciences (geography, environmental psychology, decision sciences, etc.), or in Environmental/Atmospheric sciences with experience in qualitative social sciences methods/interview analysis.
Laboratoire et encadrant : The internship will take place at the Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Grenoble, under the supervison of Isabelle Ruin (IGE) and Paul Abeillé (Météo-France Sport, Lyon)
Mots clés : communication, decision-making, weather forecasting, uncertainty
